SO THIS IS SOLAR MAXIMUM?

[Helga Schöps]

Hallo zusammen,

heute hier:

SO THIS IS SOLAR MAXIMUM?
http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2012

VG Helga

[Heiko Ulbricht]

Auch grad entdeckt, könnte es vielleicht schon für diesen Zyklus gewesen sein...

[Torsten Serian Kallweit]

Ich habe diesen Link aufgetan, was sagt Ihr hierzu; ist sowas heute schon wissenschaftlich fundiert?:

http://www.kaltesonne.de/?p=5907

[Heiko Ulbricht]

Zumindest ist mir bekannt, daß dem 11jährigen Zyklus ein 80jähriger überlagert ist, der zu unterschiedlich hohen Maxima führt. Entweder befinden wir uns in einer derzeitigen Phase oder gar im Beginn eines neuen Maunder-Minimums...

[Rico Hickmann]

Sehr ungünstiger Zeitpunkt für so ein großes Minimum. Das hätte ruhig noch 50 Jahre warten können...

[wolfgang hamburg]

Moin moin,

Totgesagte leben länger!

Also ich sehe noch nicht eine fleckenlose Sonne für mehr als einen Zyklus. Es wird wohl ein schwaches Maximum, alles weitere ist aber hochgradig spekulativ. Und "OMG! Wir müssen alle störben!" rufen, ist auch nicht wirklich hilfreich. Man kann vor vielem Angst haben:
Hilfe! Die nächste Katastrophe!


Grüße wolfgang

[Martin Hahn]

Hier noch ein paar relativierende Argumente vom STCE ( http://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php )

"Though the smoothed International Sunspot Number (ISN) shows a maximum late 2011, chances are very low that this is the true maximum of SC24. There are several reasons to come to this conclusion. For example, a maximum late 2011 would mean that the time of rise (i.e. the time needed for a solar cycle to rise from its minimum to its maximum) would only be about 3 years. Such short rise times are usually reserved for very active and short cycles such as SC22 which only needed 37 months to reach its maximum sunspot number of about 160 in October 1989. In contrast, lower amplitude cycles like SC20 in 1969 and SC23 in 2000 needed already more than 4 years to reach their resp. maximum.

One can also see that last year's "maximum" was mainly due to activity on the northern solar hemisphere, which produced most of the big groups and strong flares. Since then, northern activity has subsided somewhat, while that on the southern hemisphere has gradually been increasing. It is reasonable to expect that when the southern sunspot maximum peaks, a new and higher sunspot maximum will occur, and that this might be the true SC24-maximum.

Low amplitude sunspot cycles are also known for a broad maximum with several ups-and-downs. Graph underneath compares the smoothed monthly sunspot number of the ongoing solar cycle with that of SC16. Clearly, one can see that a solar cycle can have multiple maxima, and that the first sunspot peak does not necessarily have to be the highest.

The average latitude at which the sunspot groups appear, is currently also very normal indicating that the true maximum is still to come. The groups on the northern hemisphere appear on the average a few degrees closer to the solar equator than on the southern, consistent with the higher activity that took place on the northern hemisphere late 2011.

All the above arguments are of course only indirect indications for a maximum that has not happened yet. Moreover, solar observers are well aware that the Sun isn't shy of pulling a new trick out of her sleeve. Nonetheless, a SC24-maximum that is yet to come (2013 - see SIDC-prediction charts at http://www.sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-gr ... aphics.php ) is at the moment a lot more likely than the claim that the maximum took already place (late 2011)."