SEC : Schockfront-Ankunft ab Montagmittag

[Gunnar Glitscher]

Im aktuellen SEC Report wird der Full Halo bestätigt. Die Aussichten für PL in der Nacht zum Dienstag sind hervorragend und auch in der Nacht darauf könnte es noch einiges los sein.

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/40
Minor storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/55/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/50
Minor storm 40/20/30
Major-severe storm 40/70/20

Leute - womit haben wir soviel Glück verdient? )

Gruß,
Gunnar

[udo, dk5ya]

MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods

possible.
04 Nov 100 Minor to major storm with possibility of severe

storm.
05 Nov 40 Minor to major storm.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity further decreased today.
The solar wind stream further weakened. The decline in the
geomagnetic activity is expected to continue on 03 November.
However, the CMEs observed on 01 and 02 November, are expected
to arrive around mid-day on 04 November. This may again
strengthen the solar wind stream and raise the geomagnetic
activity to storm levels on 04 and 05 November.

Ohne den 3.0-er von 01.29 UT heute.
Gruß
Udo

[Gunnar Glitscher]

Werden sehen, wer richtig lag - immer wieder spannend. Tippe eher auf Ankunft schon heute.

Gruß,
Gunnar

SOURCE EVENT

Class X8.37 Flare in Region 486 at 17:25 UTC on 02 November 2003
Type II: 1691 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: ~ 1950 km/sec (West)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 21:00 UTC on 03 November to 14:00 UTC on 04
November
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 07:00 UTC, 04 November 2003 (2 am EST on 04
November)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 7

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially
turn:
NORTHWARD

IMPORTANT TIME OF ARRIVAL NOTICE FOR NORTH AMERICANS
The preferred time of arrival is MONDAY NIGHT (before you go to bed), near
or after local MIDNIGHT.

EVENT #51 NOTES:
The time of arrival of this disturbance is less certain than previous
predictions because it is not possible to accurately ascertain the velocity
profile of the shock front. Most models agree on a time of arrival near
07:00 UTC on 04 November. But there is a possible error of at least plus or
minus several hours for this event. This event has the potential to produce
minor to severe geomagnetic and auroral storm conditions on 04 November.
This will probably be the last coronal mass ejection that proves to be
geoeffective before active solar Region 486 moves out of range. Also note
that this event is expected to canibalize another earlier and weaker coronal
mass ejection which may have had a small Earthward-directed component from
Region 486.