Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 07:45 UTC, 19 DECEMBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 21 DECEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 19 - 20 DEC (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 19 - 21 DEC

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 12, 10 (19 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 - 24 HOUR

MINOR BELT = 24 - 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN NEW YORK

STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND

POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES GERMANY, POLAND, LITHUANIA, LATVIA AND

ESTONIA, TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS

OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF MINOR ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Geomagnetic and auroral activity is intensifying following the arrival
of the leading edge of a coronal hole based solar wind stream. Conditions are
becoming increasingly favorable for periods of moderate to strong substorm
activity over the higher latitude (and possibly some upper-middle latitude)
regions. The most intense phase of activity is expected over the next 24
hours. However, the full phase of the moon will significantly hamper attempts
to view activity from the middle latitudes. Nevertheless, some sightings may
be possible.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
21 December. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **