STD: CME Prediction !

[Peter Kuklok]

Event #29 - 16 August 2002
Issued: 21:30 UTC, 16 August 2002

SOURCE EVENT

M5.2/2N Solar Flare near N14 E20 at 12:32 UTC on 16 August
Type II: 1,836 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 1,404 km/sec @ pos ang 117 (SE)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 12:00 UTC on 17 August to 09:00 UTC on 18 August
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 21:00 UTC, 17 August 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 7

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #29 NOTES:

This high velocity coronal mass ejection has the potential to produce strong geomagnetic and auroral storming beginning later on 17 August and persisting through much of 18 August. Minor to major storming with brief severe storm level activity may accompany this disturbance. We are predicting a category G2 to G3 geomagnetic storm. A strong shock front capable of producing a moderate to high-level sudden storm commencement is also expected.

These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[Peter Kuklok]

Ich erwarte G3-G4 über Europa *o.T.*

[udo, dk5ya]

Large solar region 69 (S14E20) produced the M5.2 flare
(slow decline, long duration) at 1232UT. A proton enhancement
followed the flare. This event was associated with a Type II
radio sweep, and Lasco reported a fast bright full halo front
side mass ejection. Event data suggests a shock arrival window
0200-1000UT 18 Aug. This regions location, just east of the centre
of the solar disk and event parameters suggest signifcant activity
can be expected from this flare. A smaller fainter mass ejection
was observed off the west limb at the start of the UT day, any
effects from this mild event will probably be overtaken by the
fast CME from the M5 flare. Yesterdays small discontinuity appears
to have been the signature from the recent M1.8/CME event. Solar
wind speed was moderately elevated over the UT day , 600km/sec,
and the north south comoponent of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mildly (5nT) southward for much of the UT day.

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 39 is due for return to
the south-east limb around 18 Aug. Also, previously M-flare(s)
producing region 44 is also due for return to the south-east
limb around this day.

MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Aug 60 Major storm
19 Aug 18 Initially active , then declining to unsettled levels.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 16 August and
is current for interval 18-19 August. Major storm levels expected
early 18 Aug due to M5 flare/CME on 16 Aug. Chance periods of
severe storm local night 18 Aug.

Schaumermal....Wird Zeit, die 400er Fujis werden ungeduldig.

Udo

[Thomas Sävert]

Hi Udo,

habs nach ein paar Stunden Abwesenheit groß auf meinen Seiten. Jetzt aber schnell vorschlafen.

Gruß, Thomas Sävert

> Large solar region 69 (S14E20) produced the M5.2 flare
> (slow decline, long duration) at 1232UT. A proton enhancement
> followed the flare. This event was associated with a Type II
> radio sweep, and Lasco reported a fast bright full halo front
> side mass ejection. Event data suggests a shock arrival window
> 0200-1000UT 18 Aug. This regions location, just east of the
> centre
> of the solar disk and event parameters suggest signifcant
> activity
> can be expected from this flare. A smaller fainter mass ejection
> was observed off the west limb at the start of the UT day, any
> effects from this mild event will probably be overtaken by the
> fast CME from the M5 flare. Yesterdays small discontinuity
> appears
> to have been the signature from the recent M1.8/CME event. Solar
> wind speed was moderately elevated over the UT day , 600km/sec,
> and the north south comoponent of the interplanetary magnetic
> field was mildly (5nT) southward for much of the UT day.

> Previously X-flare(s) producing region 39 is due for return to
> the south-east limb around 18 Aug. Also, previously M-flare(s)
> producing region 44 is also due for return to the south-east
> limb around this day.

> MAGNETIC FORECAST
> Date Ap Conditions
> 17 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
> 18 Aug 60 Major storm
> 19 Aug 18 Initially active , then declining to unsettled levels.
> COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 16 August and
> is current for interval 18-19 August. Major storm levels
> expected
> early 18 Aug due to M5 flare/CME on 16 Aug. Chance periods of
> severe storm local night 18 Aug.

> Schaumermal....Wird Zeit, die 400er Fujis werden ungeduldig.

> Udo

[Ulrich Rieth]

Und ich sage, der zweite G5 ist fällig!!! *o.T.*

[Lutz Schenk]

Demnach sieht aber die Prediction von IPS das Fenster deutlich weiter nach hinten verschoben.
Das wäre dann nicht mehr so die Prime-Time für uns...
Na ja, hoffen wir das beste.

Wenigstens spielt ja das Wetter mal ein bissel mit.
Bin derzeit in der Nähe von Kempten.

Was mir nur bissel Sorgen macht ist das IMF. Ist doch jetzt schon länger deutlich südlich. Befürchte ein "Initially turn north"...

Was meint ihr dazu?

Gruß Lutz