STD: Neue CME-Prognose

[Peter Kuklok]

Revised Event #29 (#29b) - 18 August 2002
Issued: 06:15 UTC, 18 August 2002

SOURCE EVENT

M5.2/2N Solar Flare near N14 E20 at 12:32 UTC on 16 August
Type II: 1,836 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 1,404 km/sec @ pos ang 117 (SE)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 06:00 UTC on 18 August to 18:00 UTC on 18 August
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 11:00 UTC, 18 August 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 6

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #29b NOTES:

Reason for Revision: Slower than predicted downstream solar wind velocities have been observed following the tail-end of a coronal hole based disturbance. The slower than anticipated solar wind velocity has required model adjustments in the impact time. The new impact arrival time is now 11:00 UTC on 18 August, give or take several hours, with an attendant minor reduction in anticipated shock strength. This disturbance probably will not be as strong as originally predicted, but could still drive some periods of strong geomagnetic and auroral activity. The original prediction has been included below for completeness.

[Karsten Hansky]

Das könnte zumindest für Radio-Aurora reichen o.T.

[Heiko]

Hallo Peter,

mit Schockstaerke 6 und dem nach Sueden gerichteten IMF siehts doch nicht so schlecht aus ?

Gruss Heiko

[Gunnar Glitscher]

Frage an die Archivare: Reisezeit des Apr. 6/7 2000 PL CME ? *o.T.*

[Peter Kuklok]

49 Stunden, PoS 984 km/s, Ursprungsregion weit im Westen *o.T.*

[Gunnar Glitscher]

Danke! Dann gibt's evtl. noch Chancen für heute Abend. *o.T.*