Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch

[Günther Strauch]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 03:00 UTC, 04 SEPTEMBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 04 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 04 SEPT (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04 SEPT

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 15, 15, 12 (04 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO NIL

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO CENTRAL IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN

SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN

NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL

SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF

NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A solar disturbance is producing enhanced solar wind conditions that may
be capable of producing periods of middle latitude auroral activity over
the next 12 hours. A sustained southward turning of the IMF is currently in
progress that may result in moderately strong substorm activity. Activity is
not expected to be continual in duration, but will probably come in spurts in
the form of isolated substorms. However, the substorms that occur could cover
relatively large spatial regions and may at times be rather strong.
Observations from middle latitudes may be possible during these substorm
intervals. The waning phase of the moon will also provide optimally dark
skies for much of the night. No significant auroral storming is anticipated
with this disturbance. However, the potential for occassional strong
substorms is sufficient to justify this watch.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 04 Sept.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

A FREE trial of the space weather "SWIM" software package is now
available at: http://www.spacew.com/swim. Use it to monitor current
conditions. It may also be used to monitor any image resource you find on the
Internet (including almost any type of 'cam' or "pictures of the day" you
can find).

** End of Watch **