middle latitude auroral watch 14. october 2002

[Günther Strauch]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 08:25 UTC, 14 OCTOBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 14 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 OCT (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 OCT

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 15, 15, 15 (14 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 6 - 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 - 18 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO WISCONSIN TO

MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF EUROPE TO NORTHERN

RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT INFREQUENT PERIODS

OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A moderately strong southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic
field is resulting in intensified levels of high latitude auroral activity.
Periods of infrequent minor auroral substorming may produce isolated episodes
of visible sporadic mid-latitude auroral activity over the next 6 to 12
hours. Since the source of these enhanced solar wind conditions is not yet
well established, there is a notable chance conditions may continue to be
sporadically favorable for enhanced activity beyond the expiration time of
this watch (19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 14 October). Nevertheless, the most
volatile period will probably be during the next 12 hours.

This is not expected to be a very good event for watching, unless you
are patient and willing to wait between substorms.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 14 October.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

WE WELCOME PHOTOGRAPHERS TO PLACE IMAGES IN OUR GALLERY

http://www.spacew.com/gallery

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **

[Ulrich Rieth]