MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (VALID BEGINNING AT:

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 23:50 UTC, 09 NOVEMBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 21:00 UTC (4 pm EST) ON 10 NOVEMBER, THEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 09 - 10 NOV (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 09 - 13 NOV

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 40, 25, 12 (10 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 HOURS (SEE WARNING)

MINOR BELT = 24 - 96 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO IDAHO TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO

NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL UNITED KINGDOM TO THE NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN

GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY

ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

An interplanetary shock was detected in the solar wind by the ACE
spacecraft at 17:55 UTC on 09 November (12:55 pm EST). This may be the result
of a corortating interaction region associated with a coronal hole based
disturbance. This activity could lead to intensified levels of higher
latitude geomagnetic and auroral substorm activity over the next 12 to 24
hours.

A more substantial coronal mass ejection is expected to impact the Earth
sometime on 11 November (we expect impact near 05:00 UTC on 11 November [this
translates to a local time of around midnight EST on the evening/early
morning hours of 10/11 November). The Space Environment Center is expecting
impact late in the UTC day of 11 November (with only a mild enhancement of
activity). We believe geomagnetic and auroral activity could easily reach
minor to major storm levels on 11 November (with a slight chance of brief
severe storming over the higher latitudes) in response to this disturbance. A
middle latitude auroral activity WARNING has been issued for this
disturbance. The warning will supersede this WATCH beginning at 21:00 UTC on
10 November (4 pm EST on 10 November).

North American observers interested in watching for possible periods of
strong auroral storm activity are encouraged to watch the skies during the
evening hours of 10 November and again in the evening of 11 November.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) on
13 November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **