MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Ulrich Rieth]

http://www.spacew.com/reports/aurorawatch.txt

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 05:00 UTC, 26 NOVEMBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC ON 26 NOVEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 28 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 NOV (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 26 - 28 NOV

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 25, 18, 12 (26 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 - 18 HOUR

MINOR BELT = 18 - 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO IDAHO TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO

NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL UNITED KINGDOM TO THE NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN

GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY

ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

An Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection observed on 24 November has
the potential to produce periods of active to isolated auroral storm
conditions from late on 26 November through to possibly 28 November. Impact
of the disturbance is currently expected in the early UTC hours of 27
November (current estimate is near 08:30 UTC on 27 November, give or take
several hours).

The best opportunity to observe activity will be in the early evening
hours prior to moonrise. However, auroral activity may still be visible from
middle latitudes during the height of the disturbance despite the moderate
influence of the moon after it rises.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
28 November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **

[Bernd]

Hallo,

falls das tatsächlich was gibt, wird es in Deutschland aus wettertechnischen Gründen sowieso besser in der Nacht von Mi auf Do zu beobachten sein. Da die Schockfront aller Voraussicht nach schon vorher (STD schätzt Mi morgen) eintrifft ist PL-technisch die erste Nachthälfte auf Do begünstigt. Ende der Dämmerung ist in Münster 18:27 Uhr Ortszeit, Mondaufgang 23:47. Das sind über 5 dunkle Stunden.

Grüße,

Bernd