Update: MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 22:10 UTC, 26 NOVEMBER 2002

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*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

For North Americans, begin watching TONIGHT.

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 22:00 UTC (5 PM EST) ON 27 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 26 - 28 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 16, 40, 15, 12 (26 NOV - 29 NOV)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO

ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND

MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO

NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED

FROM NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.

SYNOPSIS...

A moderately strong interplanetary disturbance is in-progress. Impact
of the disturbance occurred at the Earth near 21:52 UTC (4:52 pm EST).
Periods of minor to major auroral storming are expected to accompany this
disturbance. Observations of auroral activity will be possible across
wide-spread middle latitude regions during the next 12 to 18 hours. Initial
data suggest the disturbance could become fairly strong initially.

This warning will remain in effect until 22:00 UTC on 27 November. It
will then be downgraded to a watch or allowed to expire.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

CURRENT REPORTED SIGHTINGS OF ACTIVITY MAY BE FOUND AT:

http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

CURRENT REAL-TIME CONDITIONS (PLOTS) ARE AVAILABLE AT:

http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

CURRENT GALLERY OF ASTRONOMICAL AND AURORA IMAGES:

http://www.spacew.com/gallery

DISCUSSIONS OF ACTIVITY

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

** End of Warning **