CME Impact Prediction...

[Ulrich Rieth]

...nicht sehr optimistisch.
Und im Bezug auf die Jahreszeit, würde ich mich dem eher anschließen.
Aber natürlich lasse ich mich gerne überraschen.
Gruß

Ulrich

Event #36 - 20 December 2002
Issued: 08:50 UTC, 20 December 2002
Updated: 21:53 UTC, 19 December 2002

SOURCE EVENT

Class M2.7/2N flare near N15 W09 at 21:53 UTC on 19 December
Type II: 668 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 837 km/sec (NW)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Revised Estimated Impact Window: 03:00 UTC on 22 December to 23:00 UTC on 22 December
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 14:00 UTC, 22 December 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD

EVENT #36 NOTES:

A small proton enhancement was observed in conjunction with this solar flare/CME. A 210 sfu tenflare also accompanied this event, as well as a moderately strong Type IV sweep frequency event.

These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[Peter Wloch]

Re:) Ich hab meinen Magneten trotzdem mal auf Sued eingestellt *o.T.*