MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 12:00 UTC, 21 DECEMBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 03:00 UTC ON 22 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 23 DECEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22 DEC (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 DEC

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 25, 13, 10 (21 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 06 - 18 HOUR

MINOR BELT = 18 - 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR TO FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN NEW YORK

STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND

POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES GERMANY, POLAND, LITHUANIA, LATVIA AND

ESTONIA, TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS

OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF MINOR ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

An Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection observed on 19 December is
expected to impact the Earth on 22 December and produce enhanced periods of
auroral activity. There will be a chance some middle latitude observers may
spot periods of auroral activity after this disturbance arrives. However,
observing from a dark-sky site will be key considering interference from the
moon will be high during this time.

The disturbance is predicted to impact the Earth sometime near 14:00 UTC
(9 am EST) on 22 December. If impact occurs as predicted, New Zeland,
northern Russia and eastern European regions will be best placed to observe
the main phase of the activity. North American observers may see the tail-end
of the activity, which might not amount to very much visually unless the
disturbance couples to the Earth's magnetosphere much stronger than
anticipated.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
23 December. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **

[Wiebke Fock]

Hier gibt es nur Wolken zu watchen *o.T.*