MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Heiko]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 04:20 UTC, 04 FEBRUARY 2003

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 06 FEBRUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 04 FEB (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04 - 06 FEB

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 20, 15, 12 (04 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 - 36 HOUR

MINOR BELT = 36 - 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN NEW YORK

STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND

POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES GERMANY, POLAND, LITHUANIA, LATVIA AND

ESTONIA, TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS

OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

It appears effects from a coronal hole based solar wind disturbance are
beginning to be felt. Over the last several hours, there has been a gradual
increase in solar wind velocities and evidence of solar wind compression.
Enhanced interplanetary magnetic fields and elevated solar wind velocities
may drive periods of moderately strong auroral substorm activity over the
next 24 to 72 hours. The main belt of aurora activity is expected to occur
over the next 24 to 36 hours. Although no significant storming is
anticipated, substorm activity may occasionally become strong enough to
observe from many middle latitude locations. The near-new phase of the moon
will enhance the opportunities for observing activity from the middle
latitudes.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
06 February. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **