Allererste STD-Analyse - protonenflare?

[Wolfgang Dzieran]

Hallo,

hier eine Kopie der ersten ASTD-Analyse, veröffentlicht vor wnigen Minuten:

Aurora / Geomagnetic Activity Update:

A stronger southward turning of the IMF has been observed over the last
hour that could contribute to a period of strong auroral substorming
(particularly over the higher latitudes) during the next few hours. In
addition, a middle latitude auroral activity watch has been issued for the
next 12 to 24 hours. Enhanced solar wind conditions emanating from a solar
coronal hole based solar wind stream are responsible for this enhancement -
possibly in conjunction with effects of a coronal mass ejection observed a
few days ago following a filament eruption. Effects of todays X-class solar
flare (see below) have not been factored into the forecast yet. Details will
be provided when the analysis is complete.

Solar Update:

Active Region 314 spawned a major class X1.5/1B solar flare at 19:05 UTC on
17 March. This event occurred following a period of renewed growth along an
intensified east-west oriented neutral line that has developed over the last
few days. This region contains a strong delta magnetic configuration (some
decay has been observed since the major flare). This, combined with the
strong gradients that have formed is believed to be responsible for the
production of this flare. There is a chance this was a weak proton flare. We
are currently beginning to observe a very weak enhancement of energetic
protons at greater than 10 MeV. There is a chance we might see protons
approach event levels of 10 pfu over the next 12 to 24 hours. It is not
certain yet whether this flare was associated with an Earthward-directed
coronal mass ejection. Data is still incoming and the analysis is not
complete.

Mal sehen, wann die Datenlage besser wird. beachtet die Links unten auf dem STD-Diskussionsforum!
Wolfgang
aus Bad Lippspringe

[Wolfgang Dzieran]

Der Anstieg der protononen um 19 Uhr UT ist chon signifikant, aber der weitere Verlauf irritiert mich doch ein wenig. Leider habe ich zuwenige Daten von frühern Ereignisssen gesammelt, um hier mal echte Vergleiche zu anderen "X-Flares" zu ziehen. Kann da jemand aushelfen?

Draußen ist es ansonsten lausig kalt (okay, objektov erst -1°, aber geühlt ... -20°) und recht diesig, durch den Vollmond und die hohe Luftfeuchtigkeit (über vielen Wiesen steht richtig Nebel) sind nur wenige Sten zu sehen. Grenzgröße vielleiht bei 3mag.

Für ein schwächeres Polarlicht strahlt ist das wohl zu hell.

Wolfgang
aus Bad Lippspringe