MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (WATCH ISSUED: 20:50

[Ulrich Rieth]

fürs Archiv

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 20:50 UTC, 17 MARCH 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 19 MARCH

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 - 18 MAR (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 17 - 19 MAR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 18, 12, 12 (17 MARCH - 20 MARCH)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 - 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 - 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN NEW YORK

STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND

POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES GERMANY, POLAND, LITHUANIA, LATVIA AND

ESTONIA, TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS

OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a well placed solar coronal hole possibly combined with
effects of a coronal mass ejection associated with a filament eruption a few
days ago are expected to produce periods of enhanced solar wind conditions
capable of producing periods of moderately strong auroral substorm activity.
Minor to major auroral substorming is possible over the high latitudes during
the next 12 hours.

Effects of todays major X-class solar flare have not been included in
this assessment. The data associated with this event will be analyzed
separately and may warrant extending this watch. Details may follow in an
update to this watch if deemed necessary.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
19 March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **

[Ulrich Rieth]

und noch was fürs Archiv

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MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT

ISSUED: 21:00 UTC, 17 MARCH 2003

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Active sunspot complex 314 grew and intensified a delta configuration during
the last 24 hours. Strong gradients oriented along a sheared east-west
oriented neutral line are believe to have contributed to the occurrence of a
class X1.5/1B solar flare at 19:05 UTC. This flare was associated with a 520
sfu tenflare and has indications of being a possible proton-producing event.
There are hints of increaed energetic protons at greater than 10 MeV arriving
at the present time - just slightly above background levels. A major response
in energetic proton populations is probably not likely to occur. However,
there is a chance protons may increase toward event levels of 10 pfu over the
next 12 to 24 hours. It is not yet clear whether this event was associated
with an Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection.

Additional M-class flares with a chance for an isolated X-class event are
expected over the next 72 hours from Region 314.

** End of Notice **