MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH!!!

[Ludvig N]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 06:30 UTC, 08 APRIL 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 12 APRIL

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08 APRIL, THEN 10 AND 11 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 08 APRIL THROUGH 12 APRIL

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 15, 24, 22 (08 APRIL - 11 APRIL)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 - 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = THROUGH 12 APRIL

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW, BECOMING MODERATE BY 12 APRIL

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR (SEE NOTES)

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SCOTLAND TO SOUTHERN NORWAY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND. EXTREME NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS, GERMANY, POLAND, LITHUANIA AND AREAS OF LATVIA AND ESTONIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF WEAKER ACTIVITY. SOUTHERN REACHES OF NEW ZEALAND COULD ALSO SPOT PERIODS OFACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a minor coronal mass ejection that impacted the Earth at
01:15 UTC on 08 April could produce periods of moderate auroral activity over the high latitudes during the next 12 to 18 hours. Some middle latitude regions may also spot periods of enhanced activity. Activity is expected to subside on 09 April. On 10 April, effects of a recurrent solar coronal hole are expected to produce another enhancement of activity on 10 and 11 April (possibly extending into 12 April as well). Although significant activity is
unlikely, previous solar rotations of this coronal hole have resulted in auroral activity strong enough to observe from many dark-sky middle latitude regions. The moon may hamper some attempts to view activity, but will be less of an influence over the next 24 hours than it will be on 10 through 12 April.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
12 April. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.