Update: STD-Forecast Notes

[Peter Kuklok]

Last Update: 04 May 2003, 17:00 UTC (1:00 am EDT 04 May):

Aurora / Geomagnetic Activity Update:

A sector boundary was observed passing the Earth near 14:41 UTC. This is
expected to precede another coronal hole based disturbance over the next 48
to 72 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase as the coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream approaches the Earth over the next few days.

Solar Update:

Active Region 348 (south of Region 349) has developed in magnetic
complexity over the last 24 hours. Two small bipoles appear to be in the
process of coliding. This has produced a small delta configuration with
increasing levels of magnetic shear and intensifying gradients. M-class flare
activity may be possible from this region over the next 24 to 72 hours, with a
very slight chance of a major flare. A similar synopsis exists for Region 349,
which has experienced a minor resurgence of growth and a slightly stronger
gamma (mixed) magnetic structure.