Middle Latitude Aurora Activity WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 06:20 UTC, 09 MAY 2003

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 11 MAY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 09 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 09 - 11 MAY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 20, 20 (09 MAY - 12 MAY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 - 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 - 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW - MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO

NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

UNITED KINGDOM (PRIMARILY NORTHERN SCOTLAND) TO EXTREME NORTHERN

NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME NORTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO NORTHERN

LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND

AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF

ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a persisting high velocity coronal hole based disturbance
have now apparently been joined by effects of what appears to be a transient
(possibly coronal mass ejection based) disturbance in the solar wind near
05:30 UTC on 09 May. Solar wind velocity is presently above 850 km/sec.
Conditions may support the development of occasional minor to major auroral
storm activity over the next 12 to 18 hours, with lesser (but active) levels
of activity through the next 72 hours due to persisting coronal hole effects.
Middle latitudes may be able to spot periods of activity during the next 18
to 72 hours.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
11 May. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **