Middle Latitude Aurora WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 00:25 UTC, 27 MAY 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 28 MAY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 - 28 MAY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 18, 12 (27 MAY - 30 MAY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 - 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 - 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO

NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

UNITED KINGDOM (EMPHASIS ON NORTHERN SCOTLAND) TO EXTREME NORTHERN

NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME NORTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO NORTHERN

LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND

AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF

ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a recurrent solar coronal hole are beginning to affect levels
of geomagnetic and auroral activity. Periods of moderately strong substorming
are possible over the next 24 hours as the high velocity solar wind stream
begins to overtake the Earth. There is a fair chance some middle latitude
dark-sky sites may observe periods of activity over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Greatest emphasis for possible mid-latitude sightings is during the next 12
to 24 hours.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
28 May. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **