PL this weekend!!!

[Ludvig , southern Schweden]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 16:15 UTC, 29 MAY 2003

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*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

For North Americans, begin watching TONIGHT.

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 31 MAY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 28 - 31 MAY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 30, 35, 20 (27 MAY - 30 MAY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE - HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 - 48 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 48 - 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE - LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN

COLORADO TO NORTHERN KANSAS TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

FRANCE TO SOUTHERN BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS

TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF

MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A series of solar coronal mass ejections are expected to impact the
Earth over the next 72 hours. The first disturbance (and presumeably one of
the weakest) impacted the Earth near 12:24 UTC (8:24 am EDT) on 29 May and
has produced periods of minor to major auroral storm activity. Major to
severe geomagnetic and auroral storm activity is expected to accompany the
coronal mass ejections that impact the Earth over the next 24 to 48 hours.
This should become a good to very good opportunity for wide-spread middle
latitude sightings of auroral activity during the next 48 hours. Observers
are encouraged to watch the night-skies from after sunset until dawn for
possible activity.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
31 May. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

NOTICE: THE NEXT HOME-STUDY INTERNET SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING COURSE

will commence on 16 June 2003. This course is suitable for anyone to

take (there are no prerequisites). It teaches you how to analyse solar

activity and predict space weather impacts of this activity on the Earth

and Earth-based technology systems (including predicting the occurrence

of auroral activity). It includes over 600 pages of printable curriculum

and may also optionally include several powerful software packages

developed for space weather studies and research.

Details are available at: http://www.spacew.com/www/course.html

The last offering of this course was October 2002. We do not know when

the next class may be offered. We encourage all who are interested to

consider enrolling soon.

CURRENT REPORTED SIGHTINGS OF ACTIVITY MAY BE FOUND AT:

http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

CURRENT REAL-TIME CONDITIONS (PLOTS) ARE AVAILABLE AT:

http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

CURRENT GALLERY OF ASTRONOMICAL AND AURORA IMAGES:

http://www.spacew.com/gallery

DISCUSSIONS OF ACTIVITY

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

** End of Warning **