Neue CME-Vorhersage vom STD (Event 42)

[Heiko]

Event #42 - 29 May 2003
Issued: 09:40 UTC, 29 May 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class X1.2/2B flare near S17 W38 at 01:06 UTC on 29 May 2003
Type II: 955 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: ~920 km/sec (N)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 21:00 UTC on 30 May to 18:00 UTC on 31 May
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 07:00 UTC, 31 May 2003
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #42 NOTES:

The arrival of this full halo coronal mass ejection at the Earth is expected to prolong the duration of disturbed geomagnetic and auroral activity by at least another 12 to 18 hours. Additional major solar flares and Earthward-directed CME activity remains possible over the next 24 to 72 hours. With each passing day, the trajectory of future CMEs will gradually shift toward the west of the Earth and may thereby modify the geoeffectiveness of the events.

At nearly the same time as this event, an additional higher velocity coronal mass ejection was observed that appeared to have a trajectory primarily to the west of the Earth. That CME had a plane of sky velocity estimated near 1260 km/sec. However, at the time of this writing, there is some uncertainty with respect to whether this higher velocity CME was related to the X-class flare or whether it may have originated from somewhere behind the west solar limb. It is not included in this analysis. However, it may be interesting to note that if it were, the projected impact time of the disturbance at the Earth would only change by 5 to 6 hours (reaching the Earth in the very early hours of the UTC day of 31 May and with only a minor increase in shock strength).

Since the previous event (Event #41) has not yet impacted the Earth, we are including the details for that prediction below.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

Da kommt also morgen noch mehr !!!!

Gruss Heiko

[Sven Lüke]

In den Westen, Südwesten und Mitte kommt feuchte Luft, die Bildung von Gewittern ist sehr wahrscheinlich. Überreste von den Wolken können sich dann die Nacht über noch halten...

cu, Sven