Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH EXTENDED: 05:15 UTC, 02 JUNE 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 04 JUNE

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 02 - 03 JUNE (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 02 - 04 JUNE

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 30, 20, 15 (02 JUNE - 05 JUNE)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW - MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 - 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR - POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN WASHINGTON

TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN

WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWIDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND POSSIBLY

LATVIA AND ESTONIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA ALSO HAVE A FAIR CHANCE

TO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a well placed solar coronal hole are being observed at the
present time. Auroral activity has intensified and is visible over the
upper-middle latitude regions (near the U.S./Canada border, for example).
Periods of moderately strong auroral substorming may be occasionally
observed. During these times, auroral activity may become visible over a more
widespread middle latitude region. As a result, a middle latitude auroral
activity watch has been issued for the next 48 hours, but with heaviest
emphasis for the next 24 hour period.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
04 June. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

NOTICE: THE NEXT HOME-STUDY INTERNET SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING COURSE

will commence on 16 June 2003. This course is suitable for anyone to

take (there are no prerequisites). It teaches you how to analyse solar

activity and predict space weather impacts of this activity on the Earth

and Earth-based technology systems (including predicting the occurrence

of auroral activity). It includes over 600 pages of printable curriculum

and may also optionally include several powerful software packages

developed for space weather studies and research.

Details are available at: http://www.spacew.com/www/course.html

The last offering of this course was October 2002. We do not know when

the next class may be offered. We encourage all who are interested to

consider enrolling soon.

** End of Watch **