Last Update: 11 June 2003, 11:25 UTC
Aurora / Geomagnetic Activity Update:
Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline over the next 72 hours as coronal hole effects wane. The recent flurry of major solar flares is not expected to produce any significant Earthbound impacts. This does not preclude additional future major events from producing Earthbound impacts.
Solar Update:
Region 375 continues to produce occasional major solar flares. It has, thus far, produced two major X-class flares and several major M-class flares. Additional major flares are expected as this region approaches the western limb over the next 3 to 4 days.
Also of concern is Region 380, which has the potential to produce major solar flare activity over the next several days, particularly if growth continues as it has during the last 48 hours. Energetic events from this region could result in an Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection.
und Cary Oler dann weiter im Forum:
Name: Cary Oler
Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2003 05:18:31 -0600
Subject: Re: (STD-Forum) Cary: SXI/SOHO - Flare/CME potentials
> both the SXI/SOHO images have not been updating in the past 24 hrs.
> SXI updates on their own pages so maybe something not working properly ?
> SOHO you just explained.
We get our feed from the National Geophysical Data Center. Their feed has
been down. They are aware of the problem and should have it resolved within
a few hours (hopefully). This problem has not affected the imagery
originating from SEC.
> a few remarks about the M/X class flare activity would be greatly
appreciated.
> Only the competion (spacecake.com) posts something about what has been
going on.
> A remark like nothing "earth directed" says a lot more than not saying
anything at all, don't keep us guessing/hoping please.
Sorry everyone. Thus far, there isn't anything to really get excited about.
It appears the vast majority of CME activity has been directed well to the
northwest of the Earth and probably won't have any affect on the Earth at
all.
There was one well-defined, albeit somewhat diffuse, full halo CME observed
on the 10th, but that event was in all likelihood backsided. It probably
originated from old Region 365 (the same group that produced the multiple
X-class flares and the large geomagnetic storm in May). That region should
just about be on the opposite side of the Sun compared to the Earth. It
should rotate into view around the east limb of the Sun (assuming it
survives) in about another week.
The number and magnitude of the major flare activity from Region 375 has
been quite interesting, but not overly impressive. Region 365 seemed to have
more bang per buck. Not that I'm complaining. (-;
There is a chance we might get a small side-swipe from one of the CME's that
have been observed from Region 375. But I doubt if very much (if anything)
materializes.
The other big question mark right now is what will Region 380 do. It has the
potential to produce major flare activity as well. In fact, we may begin to
see more energetic activity from this region anytime within the next several
days if growth continues as it has. Any energetic activity from THAT region
would almost certainly produce Earthward-directed coronal mass ejections.
We'll have to wait and see what it does.
I hope this helps fill in the gaps. Sorry we've been quieter than usual
lately. We'll try to be a little more boistrous in the future. (-;
Take care, everyone.
STD Update: 11 June 2003, 11:25 UT
-
Peter Kuklok
Hier noch der "Sun-Earth AstroAlert "
=================================================================
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
=================================================================
A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com
Supporting Imagery and Movies are available at:
http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html
11 June 2003
MULTIPLE MAJOR SOLAR FLARES FROM A LARGE SPOT COMPLEX
The sun has become much more active over the last week. Two sunspot
groups are currently visible to the unaided (but protected) eye. The largest
is sunspot complex 10375, now beginning to approach the northwestern solar
limb and by far the most active sunspot region presently visible. Region
10380 was confirmed as "barely visible" to the unaided eye a few days ago by
a veteran amateur solar observer, John McConnell.
Region 10375 has spawned multiple major solar flares, including two
large X-class solar flares. It remains very volatile and will likely continue
to produce additional major flares as it approaches the western solar limb
over the next 3 to 4 days.
Thus far, it does not appear as though any of the energetic solar flares
originating from Region 10375 have produced Earthward-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs). Most of the coronal mass ejection activity associated with
this region has been well to the north and west of the Earth. Although there
is a chance the Earth may still intersect one of these disturbances, the
chances of an intersecting CME producing strong enhancements in geomagnetic
and auroral activity ("northern lights") are relatively low. The last X-class
solar flare occurred at 8:02 pm EDT on 10 June (00:02 UTC on 11 June).
Unfortunately, the SOHO spacecraft which is used extensively for determining
whether coronal mass ejections are directed Earthward, is preparing for
station-keeping maneuvers. As a result, the doors to the cameras (the LASCO
suite of instruments) were closed several hours prior to this latest major
solar flare eruption. So there is some uncertainty regarding the trajectory
of any coronal mass ejections that were associated with this event.
Nevertheless, if the history of this spot complex and its coronal mass
ejections are any indication, the trajectory of the CME associated with this
latest X-class solar flare is most likely directed northwest and away from
the Earth and probably will not have a significant influence on the Earth.
Region 10380 (currently less than half the size of Region 10375) is
nearing the central solar meridian and is gradually growing. It contains some
properties that make it a candidate for possible energetic major flare
activity as well and is being monitored closely. Any significant activity
from this region over the next several days would most likely be associated
with an Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection.
About 10 hours before the SOHO LASCO doors were closed, an interesting
coronal mass ejection was observed. At about 2:06 am EDT (06:06 UTC) on 10
June, the LASCO instruments imaged a full halo coronal mass ejection. Full
halo coronal mass ejections are caused by mass that is either ejected nearly
directly toward the Earth or directly away from the Earth (from a location on
the far side of the Sun). Given that very little eruptive activity was
observed by a fleet of instruments (both ground-based and space-based), SOHO
scientist Gareth Lawrence concluded that the coronal mass ejection was in all
probability a far-sided event and hence probably was not directed toward the
Earth. Interestingly, it is presumed that this full halo coronal mass
ejection was produced by old active sunspot complex 10365, which produced
multiple large X-class solar flares and was responsible for a large
geomagnetic and auroral storm (although the storm pittered out just before
North America entered darkness, observers in Europe did observe auroral
activity). This suggests the old active spot complex, now transiting the
opposite side of the Sun, may still have some life left in it. It will be
interesting to see what form this spot complex takes when it returns to the
eastern limb of the Sun and back into visibility around a week from now.
Additional information, including images of these large sunspot groups,
may be found at: http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html
** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
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AstroAlert is a free service of SKY & TELESCOPE, the Essential
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==================================================================
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
=================================================================
A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com
Supporting Imagery and Movies are available at:
http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html
11 June 2003
MULTIPLE MAJOR SOLAR FLARES FROM A LARGE SPOT COMPLEX
The sun has become much more active over the last week. Two sunspot
groups are currently visible to the unaided (but protected) eye. The largest
is sunspot complex 10375, now beginning to approach the northwestern solar
limb and by far the most active sunspot region presently visible. Region
10380 was confirmed as "barely visible" to the unaided eye a few days ago by
a veteran amateur solar observer, John McConnell.
Region 10375 has spawned multiple major solar flares, including two
large X-class solar flares. It remains very volatile and will likely continue
to produce additional major flares as it approaches the western solar limb
over the next 3 to 4 days.
Thus far, it does not appear as though any of the energetic solar flares
originating from Region 10375 have produced Earthward-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs). Most of the coronal mass ejection activity associated with
this region has been well to the north and west of the Earth. Although there
is a chance the Earth may still intersect one of these disturbances, the
chances of an intersecting CME producing strong enhancements in geomagnetic
and auroral activity ("northern lights") are relatively low. The last X-class
solar flare occurred at 8:02 pm EDT on 10 June (00:02 UTC on 11 June).
Unfortunately, the SOHO spacecraft which is used extensively for determining
whether coronal mass ejections are directed Earthward, is preparing for
station-keeping maneuvers. As a result, the doors to the cameras (the LASCO
suite of instruments) were closed several hours prior to this latest major
solar flare eruption. So there is some uncertainty regarding the trajectory
of any coronal mass ejections that were associated with this event.
Nevertheless, if the history of this spot complex and its coronal mass
ejections are any indication, the trajectory of the CME associated with this
latest X-class solar flare is most likely directed northwest and away from
the Earth and probably will not have a significant influence on the Earth.
Region 10380 (currently less than half the size of Region 10375) is
nearing the central solar meridian and is gradually growing. It contains some
properties that make it a candidate for possible energetic major flare
activity as well and is being monitored closely. Any significant activity
from this region over the next several days would most likely be associated
with an Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection.
About 10 hours before the SOHO LASCO doors were closed, an interesting
coronal mass ejection was observed. At about 2:06 am EDT (06:06 UTC) on 10
June, the LASCO instruments imaged a full halo coronal mass ejection. Full
halo coronal mass ejections are caused by mass that is either ejected nearly
directly toward the Earth or directly away from the Earth (from a location on
the far side of the Sun). Given that very little eruptive activity was
observed by a fleet of instruments (both ground-based and space-based), SOHO
scientist Gareth Lawrence concluded that the coronal mass ejection was in all
probability a far-sided event and hence probably was not directed toward the
Earth. Interestingly, it is presumed that this full halo coronal mass
ejection was produced by old active sunspot complex 10365, which produced
multiple large X-class solar flares and was responsible for a large
geomagnetic and auroral storm (although the storm pittered out just before
North America entered darkness, observers in Europe did observe auroral
activity). This suggests the old active spot complex, now transiting the
opposite side of the Sun, may still have some life left in it. It will be
interesting to see what form this spot complex takes when it returns to the
eastern limb of the Sun and back into visibility around a week from now.
Additional information, including images of these large sunspot groups,
may be found at: http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html
** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
==================================================================
AstroAlert is a free service of SKY & TELESCOPE, the Essential
Magazine of Astronomy (http://SkyandTelescope.com/). This e-mail
was sent to AstroAlert subscribers. If you feel you received it
in error, or to unsubscribe from AstroAlert, please send a plain-
text e-mail to majordomo@SkyandTelescope.com with the following
line -- and nothing else -- in the body of the message:
unsubscribe sun-earth e-mail@address.com
replacing "e-mail@address.com" with your actual e-mail address.
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