STD CME Time of Arrival Prediction - 23:55 UTC, 18 June 2003

[Dirk Obudzinski]

Event #44 - 17 June 2003
Issued: 23:55 UTC, 18 June 2003

SOURCE EVENT
Class M6.8 flare near S06 E59 at 22:55 UTC on 17 June 2003
Type II: 965 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: ~1800 km/sec (E)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH
Estimated Impact Window: 03:00 UTC on 19 June to 03:00 UTC on 20 June
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 11:00 UTC, 19 June 2003
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 5

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact:
At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn: NORTHWARD

EVENT #44 NOTES:
Minor to major geomagnetic storming is expected to accompany this disturbance, with a chance for periods of severe storm activity during the local night hours. Periods of strong auroral activity will be possible some time after this disturbance arrives.

[Dirk Obudzinski]

Last Update: 19 June 2003, 05:40 UTC

Aurora / Geomagnetic Activity Update:

The anticipated impact of another coronal mass ejection (associated with the
major class M6.8 flare of 17 June) is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. Its
arrival may produce periods of minor to major geomagnetic and auroral storm
activity. A middle latitude auroral activity watch remains active.

Solar Update:

Region 386 continues to pose a threat for major flare activity. It has increased
slightly in magnetic complexity during the last 24 hours, increasing in both spot
count and penumbral area. Another major M or X class solar flare may be
observed from this region during the next 24 to 48 hours. If this occurs, the
associated CME could have a stronger impact on the Earth than previous
CMEs.

[Heiko]

Hallo Dirk,

gute Nachrichten ! Dann freuen wir uns schon mal auf "stronger impact on the Earth than previous CMEs".

Gruss Heiko

Bist Du eigentlich schon am Dahinschmelzen ? ))

[Dirk Obudzinski]

> gute Nachrichten ! Dann freuen wir uns schon mal auf
> "stronger impact on the Earth than previous CMEs".

Halloechen Heiko,

die "Einschlagsvoraussage" vom STD sieht ja wieder nicht so doll aus fuer Nordamerika. Aber fuer Euch sollte es mal wieder klappen...

> Bist Du eigentlich schon am Dahinschmelzen ? ))

Zur Zeit ist es noch recht angenehm in Sedona, so um die 30 Grad... soll aber "waermer" werden in den kommen Wochen. Heisser als 40 Grad im Schatten wird's jedoch selten...

sonnige Gruesse,
Dirk