STD: Middle Latitude Auroral Activtity WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 08:50 UTC, 28 JUNE 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 30 JUNE

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 28 - 29 JUNE (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 28 JUNE - 01 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 25, 20, 20 (28 JUNE - 01 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = VARIABLE

MINOR BELT = 2 TO 3 DAYS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK

STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN

GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND POSSIBLY LATVIA AND

ESTONIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A high velocity solar wind stream from a well placed solar coronal hole
is currently buffeting the Earth's magnetosphere. At the present time, a
strong southward turning is in progress that could spawn a moderately strong
auroral substorm that may be observed from middle latitude locations.
Although this southward turning will probably be relatively short-lived, the
potential for additional periodic episodes of moderate to strong substorm
activity will exist during the next 24 to 48 hours. Significant auroral
storming is not expected. But some dark-sky middle latitude locations,
particularly along the western U.S. during the next several hours, should be
aware of the increased possibility for auroral activity.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
30 June. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **

[lutz schenk]

PL von CH's....

Na, ich glaub ja nicht so recht daran, aber mal schauen.

Wettermäßig siehts ja nicht schlecht aus für den den westen, das es auf der Kaltfront-Rückseite aufklart.

Oder ?
Was meinen die Wetterfrösche?

Gruß Lutz

[adalbert.welnowski]

> PL von CH's....

> Na, ich glaub ja nicht so recht daran, aber mal schauen.

> Wettermäßig siehts ja nicht schlecht aus für den den westen, das
> es auf der Kaltfront-Rückseite aufklart.

> Oder ?
> Was meinen die Wetterfrösche?

> Gruß Lutz

Hallo Lutz.

Wetterfrosch bin Ich nicht,aber habe Satbilder hier.
Bin gerade an der Wolkengrenze,zimlich kompakte Wolken kommen auf mir gerade jetzt aus den westen.Im Moment 3/8;-((((((

Aktueles IR Satbild



Vorhersage für Sonntag 0:00 UT erstaelt um 12 UT---Wolken



Grüsse.

Wojtek