STD: MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

WATCH ISSUED: 18:20 UTC, 26 JULY 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 28 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 26 - 27 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 26 - 28 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 40, 30, 25, 20 (26 JULY - 29 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE, BECOMING LOW AFTER EARLY MORNING MOONRISE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN

IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO

NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO

SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

The leading edge of an anticipated solar coronal hole based disturbance
is producing enhanced solar wind characteristics that should lead to
intensified levels of auroral storming over the next several hours to perhaps
the next 48 hours. There is a good chance some middle latitude locations
could observe periods of activity over the next few days.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
28 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Warning **