STD: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 23:30 UTC, 29 JULY 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 31 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 29 - 30 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 29 - 31 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 45, 30, 20, 15 (29 JULY - 01 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO

SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Solar wind enhancements imbedded within a high velocity coronal hole
based solar wind disturbance are expected to contribute to occasional periods
of moderately strong auroral substorm activity over the next 12 to 36 hours.
Higher latitudes not affected by twilight conditions may observe
longer-duration activity.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
31 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **

[Peter Wloch]

Komme gerade vom Sterne gucken zurueck.
Bis jetzt war nichts zu sehen.
Aber praechtige Milchstrasse, Mars sehr schoen, einige Meteoriten, alle von Sued nach Nord, darunter eine Feuerkugel
im Perseus um 0.37

Gruss Peter