MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

ISSUED: 02:35 UTC, 03 MARCH 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC 04 MARCH
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (2 pm EDT) ON 07 MARCH

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 04 MAR - 06 MAR (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04 MAR - 07 MAR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 20, 20, 15 (03 MAR - 06 MAR)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A recurrent high velocity solar wind stream is expected to begin
impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere over the next 48 hours. During the
last solar rotation, periods of activity were strong enough to be observed
rather dramatically over the high latitude European regions. A corotating
shock structure is predicted to have formed ahead of the high velocity solar
wind stream. If this holds true, activity may intensify rather abruptly
following the arrival of the shock front. Although no significant auroral
storming is anticipated, activity has the potential to become sporadically
enhanced sufficiently to produce periods of visible activity over dark-sky
middle latitude regions. Middle latitude observers are therefore encouraged
to keep a watchful eye on conditions during the next 3 to 4 days. The most
intense phase of activity is expected to occur either on 04 or 05 March.
During this time, even the near-full phase of the waning moon may not be
sufficient to drown out all visible activity from some dark-sky middle
latitude regions.

This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) on 07
March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Version 3.0 of the popular STD AURORA MONITOR Software

to monitor conditions, report sightings, etc., is now available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

(We now support secure on-line ordering of this software)

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

** End of Watch **

[Peter Wloch]

Re: Frueh auf! Hoffe, es reicht fuer S-Deutschl! *o.T.*

[Thomas Sävert]

also Nacht zum Dienstag?

[Peter Kuklok]

Mo/Di & Di/Mi *o.T.*

[Heiko]

Dein Optimismus tut gut ......... aber das wird sicher nichts bei uns im Sueden ... *o.T.*