Das IPS zum M1 von heute morgen....

[udo, dk5ya]

1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Moderate

Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0855UT possible lower Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 270/221

1B. SOLAR FORECAST

28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 265/216 260/210 260/210
COMMENT: The M1 xray event was a long duration event, with an
unusual xray profile. Coronal mass ejection activity was observed
to the south-west of the solar disk. The mass ejection to the
south-west began around 07 UT and was an impressive large partial
halo cme. However, event associations are difficult, making the
determination of whether this was front or backside CME activity
ambiguous. The orientation of the CME suggests it is possible
that the CME came from from 9628, but optical on disk flare activity
around this time is not that convincing, considering the size
of the observed mass ejection.
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2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 12 Unsettled
29 Sep 20 Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm conditions.
30 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible on 29 Sep based on
recurrence. There is a chance for increased activity on 29 Sep
if recent south-west directed mass ejection was a front-side
event.
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Gruss Udo