STD Middle Latitude Watch, sofort aktiv!

[Bernhard Dorner]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

ISSUED: 23:00 UTC, 29 SEPTEMBER 2001

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 30 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 29 - 30 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 29 - 01 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 20, 15 (30 SEPT - 03 OCT)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO

ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TO DELAWARE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

UNITED KINGDOM AND POSSIBLY IRELAND TO NORTHERN EUROPE INCLUDING FINLAND

AND SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. NEW ZEALAND AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST

AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Auroral activity is intensifying following the arrival of a transient
disturbance in the solar wind near 09:40 UTC. Activity was fairly dormant
until a few hours ago when solar wind conditions began showing signs of
becoming increasingly favorable for the development of auroral substorm
activity. Auroral activity may increase to minor storm levels over some
dark-sky middle and high latitude regions. The phase of the moon will hamper
attempts to view activity. Nevertheless, the activity may become intense
enough at times to become easily visible from some middle latitude regions.

This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 30 September. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and

report sightings. It is available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

WE HAVE A USEFUL DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

** End of Watch **