STD erwartet den 1. CME erst am Montagmorgen

[Peter Kuklok]

Hi,
ich kopiere Cary Olers Beitrag aus dem STD-Forum einfach mal 1:1 hier rein.

Grüße
Peter

"There have been three major flares in the last 24 hours, two of which were X1.6 flares that originated from Region 9661. The other, an
M5.7 x-ray event, originated from Region 9658. At least the two X-class flares from Region 9661 have the potential to interact en-route
to the Earth - both were full-halo events). Additional information is required with respect to the M5.7 event to determine if it was
associated with an Earthward-directed CME (or if it was associated with a CME at all). We are assuming (at least for now), that it either
wasn't - or was only weakly Earth-directed.

Our preliminary estimated time of arrival (ETA) of the first shock front from the recent activity is centered around 03:00 UTC on 22
October (that's 11 pm EDT on *21 October* for eastern North American observers), give or take several hours. None of the
disturbances are expected to be particularly fast moving, based on the latest SOHO and shock emission data, but they may still pack a
sufficient punch to produce periods of moderate auroral storm activity over the high and dark-sky middle latitude regions. Fortunately,
the moon should not be a terrible hinderance, so dark-sky conditions should be near-optimal.

The second disturbance from the latest X1.6 flare from Region 9661 will have the effect of prolonging the potential for auroral activity
well into the latter part of the UTC day of 23 October, if not into 24 October as well. So the duration of the disturbed conditions could
well be 36 to 48 hours (or more).

These disturbances most likely will not produce a huge auroral display. But they will have the potential to produce periods of
respectable activity nonetheless. "