Upgrade: MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 19:45 UTC, 21 OCTOBER 2001

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*** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 22 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 21 - 22 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 21 - 23 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 40, 15, 12 (21 - 24 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE - HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO

INDIANA TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO SOUTHERN OHIO TO WEST VIRGINIA TO

VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO

SOUTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF

AUSTRALIA AND MOST OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

The first of two anticipated coronal mass ejections impacted the Earth
earlier than anticipated and has produced periods of minor to major auroral
storm activity. Conditions are expected to continue to be sporadically
favorable for the development of auroral storm activity. Observers at
mid-latitude dark-sky locations may be able to observe periods of moderate to
strong auroral activity over the next 18 to 24 hours. The next CME
disturbance is expected to impact over the next 12 hours.

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 22 October. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and

report sightings. It is available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

WE HAVE A USEFUL DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

** End of Warning **