Mal abwarten, was da so kommt...
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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
ISSUED: 09:00 UTC, 23 OCTOBER 2001
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
** NOTE: A NEW VERSION OF THE STD AURORA MONITOR HAS BEEN RELEASED **
Details at: http://www.spacew.com/aurora
VALID BEGINNING AT: 17:00 UTC (1 pm EDT) ON 24 OCTOBER
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 26 OCTOBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 OCT - 25 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 OCT - 26 OCTOBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 14, 20, 40, 12 (23 OCT - 26 OCT)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR & AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO
INDIANA TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO SOUTHERN OHIO TO WEST VIRGINIA TO
VIRGINIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO
NORTHERN POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA AND ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.
SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS OF
ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
Two additional major solar flares occurred on 22 October that may have
been associated with Earthward directed coronal mass ejections. Coverage of
these events by the SOHO spacecraft was spotty at best, but sufficient data
is now available to confirm that at least one large coronal mass ejection
(possibly with a second imbedded one) is headed Earthward. Impact of this
disturbance with the Earth's magnetosphere is expected either late in the UTC
day of 24 October (afternoon hours EDT) or early in the UTC day of 25 October
(evening EDT hours of 24 October).
This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 26
October. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html
* OR *
*NEW* Version 3.0 of the popular STD AURORA MONITOR Software
to monitor conditions, report sightings, etc., is now available at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora
(We now support secure on-line ordering of this software)
or from Sky & Telescope:
http://store.skypub.com
(search for Aurora)
For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:
http://www.spacew.com/irc
and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)
** End of Watch **
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
-
Ulrich Rieth
POTENTIAL MAJOR/SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
POTENTIAL MAJOR/SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
ISSUED: 09:05 UTC, 23 OCTOBER 2001
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)
VALID BEGINNING AT: 17:00 UTC 24 OCT
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 26 OCT
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 - 25 OCT (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 - 26 OCT
POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR - MAJOR
POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR
POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 36 HOURS
DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 18 TO 24 HOURS
POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7
POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7
EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 5 - 6
EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: LOW
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR TO MAJOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO VERY POOR
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR TO MAJOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: POOR TO OCCAS. VERY POOR
POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 60%
SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
At least one (perhaps two) full halo high coronal mass ejection(s)
associated with two energetic solar flares on 22 October.
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
SEVERE STORM : 20 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
MAJOR STORM : 30 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
MINOR STORM : 30 % HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
ACTIVE OR LESS : 20 % POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 65% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR - MAJOR
ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 40
---- ---------------
COMMENTS:
Impact expected late on 24 October or early on 25 October (UTC days).
** End of Warning **
POTENTIAL MAJOR/SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
ISSUED: 09:05 UTC, 23 OCTOBER 2001
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)
VALID BEGINNING AT: 17:00 UTC 24 OCT
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 26 OCT
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 - 25 OCT (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 - 26 OCT
POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR - MAJOR
POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR
POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 36 HOURS
DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 18 TO 24 HOURS
POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7
POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7
EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 5 - 6
EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: LOW
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR TO MAJOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO VERY POOR
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR TO MAJOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: POOR TO OCCAS. VERY POOR
POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 60%
SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
At least one (perhaps two) full halo high coronal mass ejection(s)
associated with two energetic solar flares on 22 October.
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
SEVERE STORM : 20 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
MAJOR STORM : 30 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
MINOR STORM : 30 % HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
ACTIVE OR LESS : 20 % POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 65% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR - MAJOR
ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 40
---- ---------------
COMMENTS:
Impact expected late on 24 October or early on 25 October (UTC days).
** End of Warning **
-
Mark (Rottal/Niederbayern)
Heftig
Hi,
die Warnungen überschlagen sich ja. Das könnte das beste Polarlicht des Jahres werden. Man kann sich ja schon mal mit Reiseplanung (Wetter) beschäftigen. Vielleicht fahre ich auf die Alpensüdseite, ist ja von mir nicht so weit. Heute ist erstmal Ruhetag.
Grüße,
Mark
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> POTENTIAL MAJOR/SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
> ISSUED: 09:05 UTC, 23 OCTOBER 2001
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> (See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)
> VALID BEGINNING AT: 17:00 UTC 24 OCT
> VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 26 OCT
> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 - 25 OCT (UTC days)
> MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 - 26 OCT
> POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR - MAJOR
> POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR
> POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 36 HOURS
> DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 18 TO 24 HOURS
> POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7
> POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7
> EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 5 - 6
> EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
> POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: LOW
> POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
> EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD
> POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
> POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR TO MAJOR
> EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO VERY POOR
> POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
> POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR TO MAJOR
> EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: POOR TO OCCAS. VERY POOR
> POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 60%
> SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
> At least one (perhaps two) full halo high coronal mass
> ejection(s)
> associated with two energetic solar flares on 22 October.
> ---------------------------------
> ---------------------------------
> EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC
> IMPACT
> ---------------------------------
> ---------------------------------
> SEVERE STORM : 20 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
> MAJOR STORM : 30 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
> MINOR STORM : 30 % HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
> ACTIVE OR LESS : 20 % POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
> ---------------------------------
> ---------------------------------
> PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 65% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR -
> MAJOR
> ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM:
> 40
> ---- ---------------
> COMMENTS:
> Impact expected late on 24 October or early on 25 October (UTC
> days).
> ** End of Warning **
die Warnungen überschlagen sich ja. Das könnte das beste Polarlicht des Jahres werden. Man kann sich ja schon mal mit Reiseplanung (Wetter) beschäftigen. Vielleicht fahre ich auf die Alpensüdseite, ist ja von mir nicht so weit. Heute ist erstmal Ruhetag.
Grüße,
Mark
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> POTENTIAL MAJOR/SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
> ISSUED: 09:05 UTC, 23 OCTOBER 2001
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> (See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)
> VALID BEGINNING AT: 17:00 UTC 24 OCT
> VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 26 OCT
> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 - 25 OCT (UTC days)
> MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 - 26 OCT
> POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR - MAJOR
> POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR
> POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 36 HOURS
> DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 18 TO 24 HOURS
> POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7
> POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7
> EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 5 - 6
> EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
> POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: LOW
> POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
> EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD
> POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
> POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR TO MAJOR
> EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO VERY POOR
> POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
> POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR TO MAJOR
> EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: POOR TO OCCAS. VERY POOR
> POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 60%
> SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
> At least one (perhaps two) full halo high coronal mass
> ejection(s)
> associated with two energetic solar flares on 22 October.
> ---------------------------------
> ---------------------------------
> EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC
> IMPACT
> ---------------------------------
> ---------------------------------
> SEVERE STORM : 20 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
> MAJOR STORM : 30 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
> MINOR STORM : 30 % HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
> ACTIVE OR LESS : 20 % POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR-MAJOR
> ---------------------------------
> ---------------------------------
> PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 65% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR -
> MAJOR
> ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM:
> 40
> ---- ---------------
> COMMENTS:
> Impact expected late on 24 October or early on 25 October (UTC
> days).
> ** End of Warning **
-
Thomas Sävert
Re: Wetter wird sehr bescheiden...
Hi Mark,
vielleicht die beste Entscheidung. Wer weiß, wo die paar Wolkenlücken bei uns zu erwarten sind...
Gruß, Thomas Sävert
vielleicht die beste Entscheidung. Wer weiß, wo die paar Wolkenlücken bei uns zu erwarten sind...
Gruß, Thomas Sävert
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