MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Thomas Sävert]

Hier überhaupt mal die Watch:

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

RE-ISSUED: 06:05 UTC, 26 OCTOBER 2001

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** NOTE: A NEW VERSION OF THE STD AURORA MONITOR HAS BEEN RELEASED **

Details at: http://www.spacew.com/aurora

VALID BEGINNING AT: 10:00 UTC (6 am EDT) ON 27 OCTOBER
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 29 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 OCT - 28 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 OCT - 29 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 20, 25, 12 (26 OCT - 29 OCT)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR & AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A major class X1.3/3B solar flare was observed on 25 October from active
sunspot Region 9672. This event was associated with a full halo
(Earthward-directed) coronal mass ejection travelling at an inferred velocity
of near 900 km/sec. This is the second notable coronal mass ejection to be
launched by this active sunspot complex. The first disturbance occurred on
22 October and mildly impacted the Earth on 25 October. It did not produce
any substantial enhancements in auroral activity.

The space environment center is expecting the coronal mass ejection
observed on 25 October to impact the Earth late on 27 October or early on
28 October. Models vary somewhat in their assessment between impacts ranging
from near 11:00 UTC on 27 October to the very early UTC hours of 28 October.

The waxing phase of the moon will hamper attempts to observe activity
when the moon is higher in the sky.

This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 29
October. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

*NEW* Version 3.0 of the popular STD AURORA MONITOR Software

to monitor conditions, report sightings, etc., is now available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

(We now support secure on-line ordering of this software)

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

** End of Watch **