Potential Major Solar Flare Warning *PIC*

[Peter Kuklok]

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POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

ISSUED: 20:00 UTC, 06 NOVEMBER 2001

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SYNOPSIS:

Active sunspot complex 9690 contains a strong delta configuration with
an east-west oriented neutral line imbedded. Gradients appear to be high
and there is evidence of magnetic shear between the two delta spots. There
has been notable activity in the neutral line filament over the last 12
hours as well as fairly frequent subfaint flaring. Although we would prefer
to wait until better quantitative data is available before rendering a
judgement, there may be a sufficient number of conditions satisfied for a
major solar flare to occur within this region over the next several days,
particularly if growth continues as it has.

Active Region 9687 is also a slightly larger concern today following the
eruption of a strong cell of positive polarity flux immediately to the north
of the leader negative polarity spot, thus forming a tight but small delta
configuration. If growth continues, this area of Region 9687 may well become
capable of producing energetic solar flare activity. Additionally, the
coronal magnetic fields of Region 9687 appears to be in a sigmoid type
helical structure which may (over the next several days, and if growth in
this region continues) prove to be eruptive.

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...und noch eine Warnung vom BBSO:

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 06-NOV-2001 23:28:26 UT

NOAA 9687, S20E08. New positive polarity flux located within the leading portion has resulted in increased magnetic complexity...C- and M-class events expected with the chance of a major flare as well if development continues. NOAA 9690, S18E59. Beta-gamma with a probable delta configuration (9690 is too close to the SE limb to ascertain its true magnetic configuration). E-W magnetic inversion line with overlaying bright H-alpha plage between the possible delta umbrae...C- and M-class events expected with the chance of a major flare as well.

[Herwig, Rostock]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn724.html

> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

> POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

> ISSUED: 20:00 UTC, 06 NOVEMBER 2001

> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

> SYNOPSIS:

> Active sunspot complex 9690 contains a strong delta
> configuration with
> an east-west oriented neutral line imbedded. Gradients appear to
> be high
> and there is evidence of magnetic shear between the two delta
> spots. There
> has been notable activity in the neutral line filament over the
> last 12
> hours as well as fairly frequent subfaint flaring. Although we
> would prefer
> to wait until better quantitative data is available before
> rendering a
> judgement, there may be a sufficient number of conditions
> satisfied for a
> major solar flare to occur within this region over the next
> several days,
> particularly if growth continues as it has.

> Active Region 9687 is also a slightly larger concern today
> following the
> eruption of a strong cell of positive polarity flux immediately
> to the north
> of the leader negative polarity spot, thus forming a tight but
> small delta
> configuration. If growth continues, this area of Region 9687 may
> well become
> capable of producing energetic solar flare activity.
> Additionally, the
> coronal magnetic fields of Region 9687 appears to be in a
> sigmoid type
> helical structure which may (over the next several days, and if
> growth in
> this region continues) prove to be eruptive.

> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

> ...und noch eine Warnung vom BBSO:

> BBSO Solar Activity Warning 06-NOV-2001 23:28:26 UT

> NOAA 9687, S20E08. New positive polarity flux located within the
> leading portion has resulted in increased magnetic
> complexity...C- and M-class events expected with the chance of a
> major flare as well if development continues. NOAA 9690, S18E59.
> Beta-gamma with a probable delta configuration (9690 is too
> close to the SE limb to ascertain its true magnetic
> configuration). E-W magnetic inversion line with overlaying
> bright H-alpha plage between the possible delta umbrae...C- and
> M-class events expected with the chance of a major flare as
> well.

[Klaus Bagschik]

... wenn 9690 zur richtigen Zeit `reift' [ich hab' gestern auch brav ein Bild verwackelt].

Der Bestellung -- an 9687 -- für Freitag schliesse ich mich an. Kamera, Stativ, Zweitfilm, Spanngurt und `Magic Heat' [Handwärmkissen, gegen Tau] liegen zum Einpacken bereit ...

Grüssels

Klaus

[Stefan Stumpf]

[Lutz Schenk]

Außerdem hätte dann 9690 noch einen Tag mehr Zeit, um in eine bessere Position zu kommen.

Wenn Freitag was steigen sollte, dann müßte es wohl in spätestens 12h Krachen, sonst kommt es eh erst Samstag.

Ich denke einen solch schnellen CME werden wir so schnell nicht wieder sehen. Obwohl natürlich nichts ausgeschlossen ist.

Da aber Freitag und Samstag Abend die Wetteraussichten nicht schlecht sind, kann es also gar keinen passenden CME geben. Da würd' ich "fast" Haus und Hof für verwetten.

Gruß Lutz