STD Middle Latitude WARNING! Sofort aktiv!

[Bernhard Dorner]

Bin mal gespannt ob das IMF mitspielt...

Bernhard

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 22:00 UTC, 30 DECEMBER 2001

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*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY (6 pm EST on 30 December)
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 31 DECEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 DECEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 20, 12, 12 (30 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A moderately strong interplanetary disturbance impacted the Earth near
20:10 UTC on 30 December. Although no significant auroral storming has
developed thus far, conditions could easily become favorable enough for some
auroral storming to commence. We expect some middle latitude dark-sky regions
may spot periods of auroral activity over the next 12 hours. There is also a
chance activity may intensify sufficiently to be observed over more
widespread middle latitude regions.

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 31 December. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

Other Tools:

o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using software at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora

o On-line global discussion forum:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

o Chat in real-time with others using IRC at:
http://www.spacew.com/irc
and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora in the IRC software).

o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS:
http://www.spacew.com/sms

** End of Warning **