Aurora Warning !!! (998)

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 18:15 UTC, 10 JANUARY 2002

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*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY (1:15 pm EST on 10 January)
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 11 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 10 - 11 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 10 - 11 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 20, 25, 20 (10 JANUARY - 02 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A moderately strong interplanetary shock impacted the Earth near 15:45
UTC. Evidence of the approach of a high velocity solar wind stream emanating
from a well placed solar coronal hole has complicated the signature of the
event. At the time of this writing, conditions are favorable for the
development of intensified auroral substorm activity. Conditions may become
favorable for more wide-spread observations of auroral activity, particularly
over Europe, during the next 12 to 18 hours. The near new phase of the moon
will contribute significantly to the possibility of viewing activity from
dark middle latitude sites.

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 11 January. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

Please note that another disturbance may impact the Earth on 12 January,
related to yesterdays major M-class solar flare.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

Other Tools:

o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using software at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora

o On-line global discussion forum:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

o Chat in real-time with others using IRC at:
http://www.spacew.com/irc
and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora in the IRC software).

o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS:
http://www.spacew.com/sms

** End of Warning **