...und weiter gehts...STD CME Abschätzung vom M9... (999)

[Ulrich Rieth]

...gibt es jetzt unter http://solar.spacew.com/cme/
Fürs Archiv das Ganze mal Unten in Kopie.
Gruß

Ulrich

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Event #11 - 09 January 2002
Issued: 18:30 UTC, 10 January 2002

SOURCE EVENT

09 January 2002
M9.5/2B Flare in Active Region 9773 - N13 W02 at 18:01 UTC
Type II: Undetermined
LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: Undetermined

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 12:00 UTC on 11 January to 09:00 UTC on 13 January
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 21:00 UTC, 11 January 2001
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 5

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD

EVENT #11 NOTES:

Considerable numbers of 'unknowns' were used to derive this prediction. Some of the primary data used to help narrow the error-bar of the prediction were not available at the time this prediction was generated. It will be updated if any of the unavailable data becomes available prior to the impact of the disturbance. Please note that there is even uncertainty with respect to whether this event actually produced a CME. It is our opinion a CME was probably associated with it. These are the reasons for such a large estimated impact window.

[Peter Kuklok]

Cancelled - No Impact Expected *o.T.*