STD AURORA WATCH !!!

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

ISSUED: 22:00 UTC, 28 FEBRUARY 2001

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (2 pm EDT) ON 01 MARCH

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 28 FEB - 01 MAR (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 28 FEB - 01 MAR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 13, 10, 10 (28 FEB - 03 MAR)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 06 TO 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A sustained southward turning of the IMF has been observed over the last
several hours. High latitude European regions have already observed a few
periods of substantial substorm activity. Additional substorming (perhaps not
particularly frequent, but potentially strong) is expected to continue at
least over the next several hours. Middle latitudes may be able to spot
periods of activity despite the near-full phase of the moon.

This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) on 01
March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Version 3.0 of the popular STD AURORA MONITOR Software

to monitor conditions, report sightings, etc., is now available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

(We now support secure on-line ordering of this software)

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

** End of Watch **