STD Aurora WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

Hier der angekündigte WATCH vom STD...

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

ISSUED: 06:20 UTC, 17 MARCH 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 19:00 UTC 17 MARCH
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (2 pm EDT) ON 20 MARCH

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 18 - 19 MAR (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 17 - 20 MAR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 5, 25, 20, 12 (17 MAR - 20 MAR)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A moderately energetic long-duration solar flare was observed at 23:10
UTC on 15 March (7:10 pm EST) that was associated with a full halo (Earthward
directed) coronal mass ejection. This coronal mass ejection is expected to
impact the Earth on 18 March and enhance auroral activity to levels that may
provide middle latitude observers around the world with a chance to spot
periods of auroral activity. This is not predicted to be a particularly
strong disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential exists for periods of auroral
activity to form with sufficient intensity to become visible at times over
fairly wide-spread middle latitude regions. Observers should be alert for
possible activity during the UTC days of 18 and 19 March.

This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) on 20
March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Use the popular STD AURORA MONITOR Software

to monitor conditions, report sightings, etc. It is available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

** End of Watch **