STD News + Aurora Watch

[Peter Kuklok]

LAST UPDATE: 20 MARCH 2002, 15:05 UTC (10:05 am EST 20 March):

An interplanetary shock was observed impacting the Earths magnetosphere at
13:28 UTC on 20 March. This is the second anticipated coronal mass ejection.
There should still be one other that should reach the Earth sometime on 22
March.

This disturbance is expected to result in periods of enhanced auroral
activity over the high latitude regions during the next 24 hours. There is
also a chance some dark-sky middle latitude regions will spot activity.
Observers are encouraged to keep an eye on conditions.

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

EXTENDED: 08:45 UTC, 20 MARCH 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IN-PROGRESS
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (2 pm EDT) ON 24 MARCH

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 20 - 23 MAR (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 19 - 24 MAR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 20, 20, 15 (20 MAR - 23 MAR)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Two additional Earthward-directed coronal mass ejections have been
observed over the last 36 hours from sunspot region 9866. Although these
disturbances are not expected to be very strong, they may have the potential
to produce periods of visible auroral activity over dark-sky middle latitude
regions. The first disturbance is expected to impact sometime near 17:00 UTC
on 20 March. The last disturbance is expected near 14:00 UTC on 22 March
(give or take several hours for each disturbance).

Recent space weather conditions suggest auroral activity may begin to
show signs of becoming enhanced by 16:00 UTC on 20 March due to an
anticipated gradual southward rotation of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF). This configuration (if it persists) will likely be interrupted by the
arrival of the interplanetary disturbance later this UTC day.

This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) on 20
March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Use a significant new space weather monitoring tool

to submit your observations. See: http://www.spacew.com/swim

* OR *

Use the popular STD AURORA MONITOR Software

to monitor conditions, report sightings, etc. It is available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

** End of Watch **

[Thomas Sävert]

oder was meint Ihr?

Gruß, Thomas Sävert