STD Aurora WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

ISSUED: 03:40 UTC, 30 MARCH 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (2 pm EDT) ON 31 MARCH

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 MAR (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 MAR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 18, 18, 15 (30 MAR - 02 APR)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 06 TO 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. MOST PROBABLE OBSERVATION SITES WILL BE

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS LINE GIVEN THE FULL PHASE OF THE MOON. SOUTHERN

REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

An interplanetary disturbance in the solar wind impacted the Earth near
22:37 UTC on 29 March. Conditions may become mildly favorable for the
development of auroral substorm activity capable of producing periodic
(probably fairly infrequent) episodes of visible activity over some dark-sky
middle latitude locations. Upper-middle latitude (central to southern
Canadian provinces and perhaps some extreme northern U.S. states) and high
latitude regions are preferred locations for observing this activity.

This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) on 31
March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Use a significant new space weather monitoring tool

to submit your observations.

See: http://www.spacew.com/swim

* OR *

Use the popular STD AURORA MONITOR Software

to monitor conditions, report sightings, etc. It is available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

** End of Watch **