A s t r o A l e r t -POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

[Rainer Timm]

Hallo,

Hier mal die Warnung fürs Archiv.
Vielleicht klappt es ja dach noch bis Ende April mit unserem "Big-Event"
Gruß
Rainer

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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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A s t r o A l e r t

Sun-Earth Alert

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch

http://www.spacew.com

15 April 2002

Details at: http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

A developing active sunspot complex appear poised to produce potentially
significant energetic solar flare activity over the coming days. Observers
interested in monitoring solar activity are encouraged to pay close attention
to active Region 9906, now transiting the south-central portion of the solar
disk. Complete details, as well as a map showing the location of this spot
complex, are available at: http://www.spacew/com/astroalert.html.

Any observed energetic activity from this spot complex over the coming
days may be associated with Earthward directed coronal mass ejections
which may produce enhancements in auroral activity ("northern lights"). The
trajectory of any ejected mass could be fairly heavily directed Earthward.

Additional AstroAlerts will be posted when and if activity warrants.

** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
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[Thomas Sävert]

...ist grausam ohne Ende. Ich kann Euch da leider auch nur wenig Hoffnung machen. Frühestens am kommenden Wochenende wirds besser. Also nach Murphy muss jetzt was passieren...

Gruß, Thomas Sävert

[Ulrich Rieth]

...von der STD Seite:

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POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

ISSUED: 04:30 UTC, 15 APRIL 2002

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SYNOPSIS:

Active sunspot region 9906 (near S15W09) has been well placed for
analysis over the last several days (unlike the 9893/9901 spot complex which
has rotated too far west now to reliably monitor quantitative properties).
Although it has been moderately complex since its birth, the region appears
to be developing into a configuration that may better support larger and more
energetic activity over the coming days. Magnetic gradients appear to be
increasing and the opportunity for shearing forces to enhance potential
energetics is fairly well established within the trailer portion of the spot
complex where a delta magnetic configuration has emerged.

We believe this region may be capable of producing major M and/or
X-class solar flare activity over the next several days. Potentially frequent
M-class flaring will be possible from this spot complex. The possibility of a
proton producing solar flare also cannot be ruled out. Activity within this
spot complex to date has been correlated with moderate to strong radio
activity across most of the spectrum.

The occurrence of an energetic solar event from this active region may
be associated with Earthward directed coronal mass ejection activity.

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