Latest STD Coronal Mass Ejection Time of Arrival Prediction

[Heiko]

Event #16 - 15 April 2002
Issued: 04:25 UTC, 16 April 2002

SOURCE EVENT

15 April 2002
M1.2 Flare in Active Region 9906 - S15 W01 at 03:55 UTC
Type II: Unknown
LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: Estimated near 690 km/sec

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 07:00 UTC on 17 April to 03:00 UTC on 18 April
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 20:00 UTC, 17 April 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #16 NOTES:

None.

These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[Heiko]

Sueden recht gut werden. Allerdings wirds wohl von der Staerke des CME's her nicht viel in dieser Region zu sehen sein ......

Gruss Heiko

(Gestern Abend gab's ne schoene Sonnenlicht-Erdreflektion auf den Mond zu sehen - in der Nordschweiz hatte es 0/8 Bewoelkung!)