neue MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 08:25 UTC, 19 APRIL 2002

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*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY (04:20 am EDT on 19 April)
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 20 APRIL

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 19 - 20 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 19 - 20 APRIL

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 25, 15, 10 (19 APRIL - 22 APRIL)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO IDAHO TO WYOMING TO EXTREME NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA

TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO

NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO POLAND

TO NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME

SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A coronal mass ejection has been observed passing the ACE spacecraft at
08:03 UTC on 19 April. This disturbance is associated with high solar wind
velocities (greater than 600 km/sec) and contains moderately strong magnetic
fields. Although the magnetic fields associated with the shock front are not
particularly favorable for producing immediate auroral storm activity, there
is a good chance periods of moderate to strong auroral storm activity will
follow in the next 12 to 18 hours. Observers are encouraged to keep a close
eye on conditions. The disturbance is projected to impact the Earth near
08:41 UTC on 19 April (4:41 am EDT).

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 20 April. It will
then be updated or allowed to expire.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

Other Tools:

o A new and advanced space weather monitoring tool is available at:
http://www.spacew.com/swim

o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS (cell phone/pager):
using the SWIM software.

o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using software at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora

o On-line global discussion forum:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

o Chat in real-time with others using IRC at:
http://www.spacew.com/irc
and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora in the IRC software).

** End of Warning **