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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
ISSUED: 20:41 UTC, 21 APRIL 2002
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*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***
VALID BEGINNING AT: 06:00 UTC ON 22 APRIL (11:00 pm EDT on 21 April)
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 23 APRIL
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 APRIL
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 70, 40, 12, 10 (22 APRIL - 25 APRIL)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO INDIANA AND EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO
VIRGINA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
FRANCE TO SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN AUSTRIA TO NORTHERN
SLOVAKIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN UKRAINE TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. NEW
ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA ARE ALSO GOOD CANDIDATES FOR
AURORAL ACTIVITY SIGHTINGS.
SYNOPSIS...
A very intense, complex and high velocity solar coronal mass ejection
was observed early on 21 April. This disturbance had an estimated plane of
sky velocity of 2427 km/sec averaged out to 28 solar radii. Impact is
expected between 09:00 UTC on 22 April and 03:00 UTC on 23 April, with a
preferred impact time of near 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (give or take several hours)
on 22 April.
This is a potentially significant disturbance that could drive periods
of intense auroral storm activity. Middle and low latitude regions may be
able to spot periods of significant activity after this disturbance impacts.
At least a portion of the CME was directed Earthward, although the bulk of
the highest velocity material was directed well west of the Earth.
Note that our projected activity index for 22 April (listed as 70) may
be on the conservative side.
This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 20 April. It will
then be updated or allowed to expire.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html
Other Tools:
o A new and advanced space weather monitoring tool is available at:
http://www.spacew.com/swim
o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS (cell phone/pager):
using the SWIM software.
o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using software at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora
o On-line global discussion forum:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
o Chat in real-time with others using IRC at:
http://www.spacew.com/irc
and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora in the IRC software).
** End of Warning **
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
-
Peter Kuklok
POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
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POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
ISSUED: 21:20 UTC, 21 APRIL 2002
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(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)
VALID BEGINNING AT: 06:00 UTC 22 APR
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 23 APR
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 APR (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 APR
POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR - SEVERE
POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR - SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 18 TO 24 HOURS
DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 12 TO 18 HOURS
POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 8
POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 8
EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: LOW
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD TO FAIR
POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR - MAJOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO VERY POOR
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: SEVERE
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: PCA RADIO BLACKOUT IN PROGRESS
POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 70%
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
SEVERE STORM : 30 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
MAJOR STORM : 40 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
MINOR STORM : 30 % HIGH LATITUDES : SEVERE
ACTIVE OR LESS : 0 % POLAR LATITUDES : SEVERE
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 90% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR - SEVERE
ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 90
---- ---------------
COMMENTS:
This disturbance is expected to impact during the mid to late UTC hours
of 22 April and has the potential to produce major to severe storm activity.
** End of Warning **
POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
ISSUED: 21:20 UTC, 21 APRIL 2002
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(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)
VALID BEGINNING AT: 06:00 UTC 22 APR
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 23 APR
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 APR (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 APR
POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR - SEVERE
POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR - SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 18 TO 24 HOURS
DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 12 TO 18 HOURS
POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 8
POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 8
EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: LOW
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD TO FAIR
POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR - MAJOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO VERY POOR
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: SEVERE
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: PCA RADIO BLACKOUT IN PROGRESS
POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 70%
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
SEVERE STORM : 30 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
MAJOR STORM : 40 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
MINOR STORM : 30 % HIGH LATITUDES : SEVERE
ACTIVE OR LESS : 0 % POLAR LATITUDES : SEVERE
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 90% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR - SEVERE
ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 90
---- ---------------
COMMENTS:
This disturbance is expected to impact during the mid to late UTC hours
of 22 April and has the potential to produce major to severe storm activity.
** End of Warning **
-
Gunnar Glitscher
Re: POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
Aus dem aktuellen SEC-Bericht:
IIB. ...There is a slight chance, however, for minor to major storm intervals if the CME should prove to be extraordinarily wide. ....
Nach einem 'extraordinarily wide' CME sieht es ja in der Tat aus.
Gruß,
Gunnar
IIB. ...There is a slight chance, however, for minor to major storm intervals if the CME should prove to be extraordinarily wide. ....
Nach einem 'extraordinarily wide' CME sieht es ja in der Tat aus.
Gruß,
Gunnar
-
Ulrich Rieth
Wahnsinn! Wahnsinn! Wahnsinn!
1.) Das ist die stärkste POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING seit April 2001. Selbst die vom 06.11.2001 war bestenfalls gleichwertig (Sichtungsgrenzen etwas weiter südlich, Ap Prognose schwächer) http://www.meteoros.de/cgi-bin/aurora/w ... ?read=3688
2.) Die MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING ist auch der Hammer. Besonders der Satz "Note that our projected activity index for 22 April (listed as 70) may be on the conservative side." macht mich echt fertig.
3.) Das Wetter sieht zumindest besser als Mittwoch und Freitag der letzten Woche aus.
4.) Ich habe noch 9 Provia's hier rumliegen, die jeden Tag rufen "Belichte uns, belichte uns!"
5.) Nach 2 Fehlversuchen für praktisch ganz Deutschland MUSS es mal klappen.
6.) Alle Daten, Bilder, Warnungen und Meldungen riechen für mich nach einem "06./07.April 2000" oder einem "21.Oktober 2001".
Gruß
Ulrich
2.) Die MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING ist auch der Hammer. Besonders der Satz "Note that our projected activity index for 22 April (listed as 70) may be on the conservative side." macht mich echt fertig.
3.) Das Wetter sieht zumindest besser als Mittwoch und Freitag der letzten Woche aus.
4.) Ich habe noch 9 Provia's hier rumliegen, die jeden Tag rufen "Belichte uns, belichte uns!"
5.) Nach 2 Fehlversuchen für praktisch ganz Deutschland MUSS es mal klappen.
6.) Alle Daten, Bilder, Warnungen und Meldungen riechen für mich nach einem "06./07.April 2000" oder einem "21.Oktober 2001".
Gruß
Ulrich
-
jan lameer
Re: Wahnsinn! Wahnsinn! Wahnsinn!
Wow
I am very excited. I still have 20+ rolls of Kodak Supra 800 in the fridge. I wish I had more hands to operate all my camera's.
This indeed might become a stormy night to-morrow. Perhaps it will feel like being in a small rowing boat on the river Rhine whill fast freight carrying ships pass in opposite directions.
If you imagine that I just simultaniously watched "Storm of the Century" on Discovery Channell about the effect of an X60 flare and the movie "Inferno" on BBC 2 on the same subject.
I have been out so many times lately without result that perhaps I am entitled to see aurora at last again!
I am very excited. I still have 20+ rolls of Kodak Supra 800 in the fridge. I wish I had more hands to operate all my camera's.
This indeed might become a stormy night to-morrow. Perhaps it will feel like being in a small rowing boat on the river Rhine whill fast freight carrying ships pass in opposite directions.
If you imagine that I just simultaniously watched "Storm of the Century" on Discovery Channell about the effect of an X60 flare and the movie "Inferno" on BBC 2 on the same subject.
I have been out so many times lately without result that perhaps I am entitled to see aurora at last again!
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