MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

[Peter Kuklok]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 11:00 UTC, 23 MAY 2002

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 25 MAY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 23 - 24 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 23 - 25 MAY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 40, 20, 12, 10 (23 MAY - 26 MAY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO

NORTHERN MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO INDIANA AND EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO

VIRGINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

FRANCE TO SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN AUSTRIA TO NORTHERN

SLOVAKIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN UKRAINE TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. NEW

ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA ARE ALSO GOOD CANDIDATES FOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY SIGHTINGS.

SYNOPSIS...

A strong interplanetary shock front was observed passing the ACE
spacecraft near 10:16 UTC on 23 May. It impacted the magnetosphere near 10:50
UTC on 23 May. The source of this disturbance is still officially uncertain,
but may be related to the high velocity coronal mass ejection that was
observed early on 22 May. Auroral activity is expected to reach sporadic
minor to major storm levels over the next 12 to 24 hours. There is also a
chance for isolated major to severe storm levels of auroral activity over the
high and middle latitude regions. Australia and New Zealand are presently
well placed for observing activity. There is also a fair chance activity may
last long enough for many European regions to spot periods of activity.
However, there is uncertainty whether the disturbance will have the longevity
to last through to nightfall over North America. The disturbance may be in a
state of decay by then.

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 25 May. It will
then be updated or allowed to expire.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

*** NEW ***

We have released a new Trial Version of our powerful SWIM softare: the most
elaborate internet image resource monitoring software package available. Grab
your free copy for Windows NT4.0, Windows 2000 or Windows XP machines at:
http://www.spacew.com/swim

o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS (cell phone/pager):
using the SWIM software.

o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using software at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora

o On-line global discussion forum:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

o Chat in real-time with others using IRC at:
http://www.spacew.com/irc
and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora in the IRC software).

** End of Warning **