MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Günther Strauch]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 10:45 UTC, 30 SEPTEMBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 01 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 SEP (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 SEP - 01 OCT

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 16, 12, 12 (30 SEPTEMBER - 03 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER MOONRISE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO CENTRAL IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN

SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN

NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN

POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF

NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

The observed arrival of an interplanetary disturbance together with the
anticipated arrival of a coronal hole based disturbance may combine to
produce occasionally favorable conditions for middle latitude auroral
activity over the next 24 to 36 hours. Although no widespread significant
storm activity is anticipated, localized substorming may become rather
strong and could promote middle latitude sightings of activity.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 01 October.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

A FREE trial of the space weather "SWIM" software package is now
available at: http://www.spacew.com/swim. Use it to monitor current
conditions. It may also be used to monitor any image resource you find on the
Internet (including almost any type of 'cam' or "pictures of the day" you
can find).

** End of Watch **

[Ulrich Rieth]

...das heißt fast immer, dass Sichtungen bis runter auf 50 Grad drin sind.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Ulrich Rieth]

...aber der sieht ja eigentlich immer alles.
Wobei diesmal macht er auf das Problem Nummer 1 der heutigen Nacht aufmerksam...den NEBEL.

Location: 15 miles north of Bismarck, North Dakota (N47.00 W100.00)
UTC Date/Time of Observation: 2002/09/30 at 09:30 for 01 hours 00 minutes.
Dimmest Stars Visible: Undetermined
Estimated Intensity of Activity: Low
Elevation angle of activity above horizon: 40 degrees
Types of activity observed: (Discrete Arcs) (Rays) (Localized Pulsations)
Light Pollution: None (Dark Sky)
Sky Conditions (cloudy or not): 60% Clear View
Estimated Lunar Interference: Moderate
Comments:
After driving through dense fog, I got set up at 4:35 a.m. (9:30 UTC) this morning. There was an acr in the northern sky. About 4:45 a.m., there were some tall rays in the north and specifically in the northwest sky. While the fog interfere some, the show was bright enough to see. I watched until the show faded at about 5:05 a.m. I left at 6:00 a.m. - still was nothing in the sky at that point, and the fog had even gotten denser.

[Ulrich Rieth]

http://www.prairiejournal.com/2002north ... 093002.htm