es begint wieder

[jan]

sheggy hast radio aurora und Cary hat einen ML watch gegeben. Bz und Bt gehen gut.

clear skies.

Jan

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 15:35 UTC, 03 OCTOBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 04 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 03 OCT (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 03 - O4 OCT

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 15, 12, 12 (03 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO CENTRAL IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN

SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN

NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN

POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF

NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Another coronal mass ejection was observed passing the ACE spacecraft
yesterday near 22:15 UTC. This disturbance has begun producing sustained
southward directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) values (negative Bz
values in the solar wind) that could promote occasional moderately strong
substorm activity. Isolated dark-sky middle latitude regions may spot periods
of substorm activity, particularly if the current solar wind configuration
persists. Observers are encouraged to watch conditions closely.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 04 October.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **