MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Heiko]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 09:35 UTC, 24 OCTOBER 2002

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 26 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 - 25 OCT (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 - 26 OCT

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 20, 15 (24 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 - 36 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 - 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR TO FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO WISCONSIN TO

MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF EUROPE TO NORTHERN

RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT INFREQUENT PERIODS

OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a well-placed solar coronal hole, a southwardly directed IMF
and compressive effects in the solar wind are producing increasingly active
levels of auroral activity. Minor auroral substorming is possible across the
higher latitudes. Some of these substorms may be strong enough to become
visible across many middle latitude dark-sky regions, despite the near-full
phase of the moon. Although no significant auroral storming is expected,
auroral activity could become strong at times over some high and isolated
middle latitude regions.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 26 October.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

Conditions may now be easily followed in real-time at:
http://www.spacew.com/plots.html.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

WE WELCOME PHOTOGRAPHERS TO PLACE IMAGES IN OUR GALLERY

http://www.spacew.com/gallery

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **